Whenever possible, especially when end of the year is approaching, analysts do make this intellectually-intense exercise and experience to prove out they wish to try designing scenarios. Forecasts are obviously almost impossible to make. But as the mathematician Nicolas Taleb once said: “(…) Treat the possible as likely and treat the likely as merely possible”. Taleb is suggesting that we should be more aware of the potential for unexpected events, even if they seem unlikely. We should prepare for the worst, even if it seems improbable on the surface. We now take his unwavering lesson to the world to make a little exercise, even though this could be hard. For a matter of simplification, my approach will be EU-centric. So please readers, enjoy the read with a thick grain of salt.
Threats are always there, and they should be framed as more than possible. The World Economic Forum usually gives analysts a very ‘factual’ infographic to make likely claims on the future. From this infographic, we can delve into three different threats and three different opportunities. Let’s start off with the threats.
It’s now or never: from European policy to polity
An enchanted version of the Neapolitan popular song “O’Sole Mio” readapted on Elvis Presley’s enchanted voice sounds to us as a new leitmotiv. Europeans now live after both Draghi Report on the future of the EU and the Letta Report on competitiveness have been released. These have clarified how key is it to entrust a vision for what the EU is bound to become. The new Commission has started its office a few weeks before end ot the year. Europeans have a straightforward policy framework called “The EU Green Deal” under review. If then policy means – in very simplified words – to have the rules, the guidelines and the plans of action, 2025 is time for polity – the “how” according to whom the EU will act. Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, engaged by the European Commission, have described the context and proposed the solutions. [1] It is now time for the next Commission to act. And so we expect the Von der Leyen Commission to undertake a pragmatic realpolitik and make the EU an independent, firm actor in the international arena. To do this, the EC President will need the institutional support of divergent souls inside the EU. That is why it is now or never (again): if such support does not show up, the EU risks to push itself in a slow but failing decay. [2]
· Electoral gains: a leaderless World
This year (2024) has hosted more than 70 elections, one of the highest numbers in the last century. But the results have not always been resolutive. The second threat is thus to have a Leaderless World. And it is more than real. The outcomes of the single elections are impossible to judge as a whole. [3] But what the World has just seen is that social demands are changing as much as core-periphery balances are fluctuating. [4] Unexpectedly, many elections have shifted from a stable majority to a Leaderless one. In brief, we have observed democratic elections producing leaderless countries in Europe: in France, the first government since WW2 has collapsed after a month of negotiations, in Germany the deck of cards must be reshuffled and the incoming Chancellor will have more than one problem. In Spain, local governance is choking against the central government, producing political stalemate. Institutional stabilisation makes Italy the sole exception confirming the rule: if then Europe was a statistically-relevant sample, then analysts could claim that the World is becoming more and more leaderless.
· Geopolitical warning: from the Levant onwards.
As far as geopolitics is concerned, we note that instability is being on the rise. The Global South is struggling to build an independent, diplomatic bond by welcoming new countries into the BRICS. Threats and desperate regime-changes in the Middle East are more than a fact. Aggressive and unlawful warfare in Ukraine is on a bleeding, dangerous stage. For the EU, this simply means that Eurobonds to sustain the European defence are not just a hypothesis in the making: the European military industry must regain strength as a firm deterrent. The tempo of financing is key: while terrorist and paramilitary groups keep on relying on cryptocurrencies[5], Eurobonds must be the answer. [6]
Now, let’s focus on three possible opportunities for 2025.
· A sustainable globe: make it or break it.
As observers, we have well watched out the incredible policy effort the first Von der Leyen Commission has made throughout the last mandate. But now, whenever embarking the word “sustainable” on a “prediction ship”, we need to find rationality in it. We have longly achieved ESG policies and now we need polity, or simply how do we become the most sustainable continent in the world? The VdL second commission in office will launch a legislative recast named ‘Omnibus’ [7]. Its purpose is to co-opt ESG due diligence, reporting, asset management disclosure and ESG ratings alltogether. While ESG ratings will soon be given an independent identity, as soon as their weight and their meaning will be clarified with ESMA delegated acts – all the other ESG regulations are bound to be reviewed according to stakeholders’ preferences. Overall, urgency is needed. The time has come.
· Kindness as leadership: not an optional.
In the business world, questions around kindness as a milestone for better leadership have emerged. World CEOs are reflecting on this. Literature and academics are intensifying their claims around that assumption. [8] The idea that, in the AI and automation era, employers want to be ensured that their leaders are sympathising humans, with great mentorship capacities, is more than real. A worthy, thought-provoking example to cite is JP Morgan CEO’s Jamie Dimon recent claims on a life where people will work less and live more. [9] However, if I could dare to forecast something, 2025 will be the year of gentle, caring and women-led leadership. Because nobody else can “lead with love” as much as women could do. This is not only a prediction, but also a wish. [10]
· Future generations: bring them back at the core.
Future Generations are exploiting more sophisticated social demands. If we compared baby boomers and millennials, we would certainly be noting that they have rather opposite consumer demands. While baby boomers enjoyed an era of sustained economic growth, with innovation being accompanied by the infamous first coloured movies and American washing mashines, millennials were born with smartphones in their hands and AI-led platforms in their routine. [11] If a little intuition could bring us towards 2025, we’d certainly be attracted by veryfing how this AI-centric world would coexist with human-led mindful decision-making. At least, for now.
A cura di Manfredi Morello
Sources
Infographic source: World Economic Forum “WEF” The Global Risk Report 2024. URL: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf
[1] Real Instituto Elcano (2024) “Diseccionando el Informe Draghi”
[2] Sven Biscop (2024) Egmont Policy Brief “EU Strategy 2025-2029: We Have the Instruments, Now Set the Objectives”.
[3] Statista.com (2024) Global elections in 2024 - Statistics & Facts
[4] Statista.com (2024) 2024: The Super Election Year
[5] Morello M. (2018) Why restoring EU’s ‘Energy and Defence’ will create an opportunity for the future of the European Union. Sussex Global Studies Blog.
[6] TheSoufancenter.com (2024) “Blockchain and Bloodshed: The Role of Cryptocurrencies in Terrorist Financing”
[7] Forbes.com (2024) What Is An Omnibus? How The EU Could Reshape Sustainability Reporting.
[8] Groysberg B. (2020) Good Leadership Is an Act of Kindness. HarvardBusinessReview.com
[9] Pringle E. (2024) “Jamie Dimon says the next generation of employees will work 3.5 days a week and live to 100 years old”. Fortune.com
[10] Youtube.com (2024) Amalia Ercoli Finzi sulla Libertà. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3_ZBBYxKiKg
[11] Millennialeye.com (2014) What is your impression of the millennial vs baby boomer mindset?
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